The Influence of Population Size, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Regional Expenditure, and Regional User Charges on Locally-Generated Revenue in Pematang Siantar City

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of population size, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), regional expenditure, and regional retributions on the Local Genuine Revenue (PAD) of Pematang Siantar City from 2010 to 2023. Employing an associative quantitative approach, secondary time-series data (14 observations) sourced from BPS and BPKAD were analyzed using multiple linear regression via SPSS. The t-test results indicate that only GRDP has a positive and significant effect on PAD (Sig.=0.023), whereas population size, regional expenditure, and regional retributions show no significant effects (Sig.>0.05). Simultaneously (F-test), all four variables significantly affect PAD (F=17.752; Sig.=0.000) with a coefficient of determination R² of 0.888. This implies that the independent variables explain 88.8% of the variation in PAD. In conclusion, economic growth (GRDP) is the primary determinant of PAD, while other demographic and fiscal factors require governance optimization to achieve regional fiscal independence.