Analysis Of The Effect Of Domestic Crude Oil Production, Exchange Rate, And Thailand’s Per Capita Income On Indonesia’s Crude Oil Exports To Thailand (2010-2024)
Abstract
This study examines the effect of domestic crude oil production, exchange rate fluctuations, and Thailand’s per capita income on Indonesia’s crude oil exports to Thailand during the 2010–2024 period. The research applies a quantitative approach using annual time-series data obtained from official institutions, including the Central Statistics Agency, World Bank, and Trading Economics. The analysis employs the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to estimate the relationship between the independent variables and crude oil exports. The findings reveal that domestic crude oil production and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia’s crude oil exports to Thailand. Higher production levels increase export supply availability, while Rupiah depreciation enhances export competitiveness in international markets. In contrast, Thailand’s per capita income shows a positive but statistically insignificant effect on export performance. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly influence crude oil exports. This study contributes to the literature on bilateral energy trade by providing empirical evidence regarding the determinants of Indonesia’s crude oil export performance in the Southeast Asian region amid declining domestic oil
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