Fiscal Policy And Credit Growth: The Dynamic Effects Of Capital Expenditure And The Moderating Role Of Unemployment In Regional Development Banks In Indonesia
Abstract
This study analyzes the effect of regional fiscal policy on the credit growth of Regional Development Banks (BPDs) in Indonesia, incorporating the dynamic effects of capital expenditure and the role of the unemployment rate as a moderating variable. Using unbalanced panel data from 27 BPDs over the period 2010–2024 and a fixed effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the results show that capital expenditure has a positive and significant effect on credit growth, both contemporaneously and in its lagged form, indicating dynamic effects. In contrast, intergovernmental fiscal transfers (TKDD) exhibit a negative effect, while inflation and the unemployment rate do not have significant direct effects. However, moderation analysis reveals that the unemployment rate strengthens the positive effect of capital expenditure on credit growth. In addition, cumulative effect testing confirms that the impact of capital expenditure increases over time. These findings highlight the importance of improving the quality of capital expenditure and strengthening coordination between regional fiscal policy and the banking sector to enhance BPD intermediation, particularly under conditions of high unemployment.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Retnaning Wulan, Ayif Fathurrahman, Ahmad Maruf
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EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
