PENDUGAAN MODEL PERAMALAN HARGA EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA

  • FAUZI EMLAN
  • Wawan Eka Putra Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Bengkulu
  • Andi Ishak Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Bengkulu
  • Herlena Bidi Astuti
Keywords: Price, Coffee, Forecasting, Export

Abstract

ABSTRACT

This study aims to examine the best forecasting model for the export price of Indonesian coffee. The data used in this study are monthly data on coffee prices from January 2012 to September 2019. Three price forecasting models used are moving average, single exponential smoothing and trend analysis are applied to determine the best model based on the lowest MAPE, MAD, and MSE values. The results showed the best model for forecasting the export price of coffee is the moving average (MA1) model because it has the smallest MAPE, MAD and MSE values ​​compared to other models.

Keywords: Price, Coffee, Forecasting, Export

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Published
2020-05-30
How to Cite
EMLAN, F., Putra, W., Ishak, A., & Astuti, H. (2020). PENDUGAAN MODEL PERAMALAN HARGA EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA. AGRITEPA: Jurnal Ilmu Dan Teknologi Pertanian, 7(1), 22-30. https://doi.org/10.37676/agritepa.v7i1.1002
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Article